Six teams, 5 bonus weeks left, one Super Bonus still in hand. Ratings now come from Sagarin, refreshed weekly, and the plan from here is below.
| # | Owner | Wk 0 | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 | Wk 8 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drobby | 8 | 55 | 39 | 46 | 34 | 36 | 28 | 33 | 29 | 308 |
| 2 | Chris | 11 | 49 | 54 | 60 | 38 | 29 | 3 | 35 | 28 | 307 |
| 3 | Tovah | 8 | 33 | 49 | 33 | 41 | 32 | 44 | 66 | −2 | 304 |
| 4 | Sam | 0 | 41 | 51 | 29 | 47 | 19 | 47 | 33 | 24 | 291 |
| 5 | BowChamp | 0 | 17 | 41 | 57 | 35 | 36 | 26 | 33 | 36 | 281 |
| 6 | Mason | 0 | 36 | 55 | 52 | 66 | 16 | 32 | 3 | 19 | 279 |
| 7 | Bill | 0 | 60 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 50 | 50 | −5 | 41 | 265 |
| 8 | Ed | −10 | 40 | 44 | 64 | 22 | 0 | 47 | 11 | 46 | 264 |
| 9 | Larry | 5 | 47 | 33 | 26 | 57 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 13 | 261 |
| 10 | Isaac | 0 | 49 | 44 | 52 | 36 | 28 | −2 | 52 | 1 | 260 |
| 11 | Dudley | 0 | 47 | 54 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 41 | 35 | 235 |
| 12 | Josh | 16 | 44 | 49 | −5 | 33 | 38 | 29 | 19 | 1 | 224 |
| Wk | Actual | Board’s pick | Perfect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 41 | 64 Super |
| 2 | 41 | 61 | 41 |
| 3 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| 4 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| 5 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| 6 | 26 | 26 | 38 |
| 7 | 33 | 33 | 39 |
| 8 | 36 | 36 | 39 |
| Total | 281 | 325 | 349 |
“Board’s pick” scores each week exactly as the page recommended it at the time (Week 1: Ole Miss over Louisville; Week 2: Miami by 20+ with the Super Bonus; Week 3: Illinois by 20+, and you took Miami over Wake Forest instead, which paid the same 20; Week 4: Miami by 20+; Week 5: Miami over Clemson; Week 6: no bonus; Week 7: Ole Miss over Missouri; Week 8: Miami over Pitt). “Perfect” is the best legal bonus each week with hindsight, Super Bonus on the best of them. The gap between the first two columns is the cost of going off script; the gap between the last two is luck.
| Team | Matchup | Result | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | H vs Pitt Drobby | W 52 to 23 | 20 Bonus hit |
| Ole Miss | A vs Texas Ed AP | L 27 to 34 | 0 |
| Liberty | A vs Kennesaw St. | W 34 to 6 | 8 |
| Illinois | H vs Oregon Isaac | W 21 to 10 | 8 |
| Baylor | A vs Kansas | L 24 to 25 | 0 |
| Week 8 total | 36 | ||
Miami beat owned Pitt 52 to 23 and the bonus hit, six of seven. Illinois beat Oregon 21 to 10 for 8 (the Ducks had just dropped out of the poll, or it would have been 11), Liberty rolled Kennesaw St. 34 to 6, Ole Miss lost at Texas 27 to 34, and Baylor lost at Kansas by one. A 36 on a five-team week.
Thirty-six moved you from 8th to 5th at 281 while the top of the league stumbled: Tovah posted a minus 2, and Drobby, Chris and Tovah are bunched at 304 to 308. Third place is 23 points away with five weeks left, the closest it has been since September. Drobby picking up Auburn this week hands you back the Ole Miss Beat Owned pick in Week 9 that Ed's drop had taken away. The plan from here projects +53 points of bonus value versus never bonusing.
| Wk | Date | Team | Matchup | Bonus type | Hit | Net gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oct 28 $35 | Ole Miss | H vs Auburn Drobby | Beat owned team | +6.1 | |
| 10 | Nov 7 $35 | Illinois | H vs Nebraska Chris | Beat owned team | +0.6 | |
| 11 | Nov 14 $35 | Miami | H vs Duke Larry | Beat owned team | +8.8 | |
| 12 | Nov 20 $35 | Ole Miss Super | H vs Wofford | Win by 20+ | +31.0 | |
| 13 | Nov 28 | Ole Miss | H vs Mississippi St. Mason | Beat owned team | +7.0 |
Each team may be bonused at most six times. Spent so far: Illinois 1, Miami 5, Ole Miss 1. Miami reaches its ceiling under this plan, so an unplanned Miami bonus costs a later week its best option. Weeks tagged $35 pay the single highest weekly total; see the note on cash weeks below.
| Team | Sagarin | Games left | Exp. wins | Proj. points | Bonus edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville St. yours | 58.2 | 5 | 3.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 |
| Liberty yours | 67.6 | 5 | 4.2 | 26.8 | 0.0 |
| Iowa St. | 71.5 | 5 | 2.1 | 19.4 | 3.3 |
| Kansas | 74.4 | 5 | 2.1 | 18.6 | 1.9 |
| Tulsa | 63.6 | 4 | 2.3 | 15.6 | 0.0 |
With five games left the best unowned replacement (Iowa St.) projects only about +2 points better than Jacksonville St. the rest of the way, which no longer covers the $10. Ride it out. The Gamecocks are a coin flip at New Mexico St. on Wednesday and modest favorites in three of their last four.
Liberty is rated seven points better than Jacksonville St., has six games left against a soft Conference USA schedule and projects to five more wins. Nothing unowned beats it by enough to pay for the move.
With Mason picking up Mississippi St., the Week 13 Ole Miss line is owned for real (the workbook had it flagged that way by mistake all along). That adds +3 to a normal Ole Miss win and makes Beat Owned a legal pick there, at 81%.
Projected points are normal scoring only (win 5, owned +3, ranked +3, by 20+ +3). Bonus edge is the sum of each week's best net gain above break-even, a rough measure of how many bonus opportunities the team creates. Owned flags use the current draft list; ranked flags use the current AP poll.
| Wk | Team | Opponent | Bonus type | Hit | Extra vs normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ole Miss | H vs Wofford | Win by 20+ | +19.5 | |
| 11 | Miami | H vs Duke | Beat owned team | +17.8 | |
| 12 | Miami | H vs VA Tech | Beat owned team | +17.7 | |
| 13 | Ole Miss | H vs Mississippi St. | Beat owned team | +14.4 | |
| 9 | Miami | A vs UNC | Beat owned team | +14.2 | |
| 9 | Ole Miss | H vs Auburn | Beat owned team | +13.0 |
Five weeks in, the Super Bonus is still in hand and Week 12 is still the target: Ole Miss by 20+ over Wofford sits at 98%. The fallback is Miami over Duke in Week 11 (93%). Ole Miss has lost three points of rating in two weeks, but a 40-point home spread against an FCS team has plenty of room. Do not spend it on a Beat Owned pick under 90%.
Each week lists every bonus you could legally play. Expected week is your projected total for all six teams if you make that pick; if hit and if miss are the two branches, holding your other games at their projections. The green row is the highest expected total; the gold row is the biggest number you could post if it lands. The Super Bonus week shows the doubled payoff.
| Matchup | Bonus option | Hit | If hit | If miss | Expected week | vs none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami A vs UNC Tovah | Beat owned team Best EV | 42.6 | 12.6 | 36.8 | +6.8 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Auburn Drobby | Beat owned team Plan | 43.0 | 13.0 | 36.0 | +6.1 | |
| Baylor A vs UCF Mason | Beat owned team | 46.5 | 16.5 | 28.6 | -1.3 | |
| Liberty H vs FIU | Win by 20+ | 44.3 | 14.3 | 26.8 | -3.1 | |
| Miami A vs UNC Tovah | Win by 20+ | 42.6 | 12.6 | 21.5 | -8.4 | |
| Illinois A vs Maryland | Win by 20+ | 46.0 | 16.0 | 21.2 | -8.7 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Auburn Drobby | Win by 20+ | 43.0 | 13.0 | 20.6 | -9.3 | |
| Jacksonville St. A vs New Mexico St. | Win by 20+ Ceiling | 47.2 | 17.2 | 19.6 | -10.3 | |
| Baylor A vs UCF Mason | Win by 20+ | 46.5 | 16.5 | 18.1 | -11.9 | |
| No bonus all 6 games score normally | · | · | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 0.0 |
| Matchup | Bonus option | Hit | If hit | If miss | Expected week | vs none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois H vs Nebraska Chris | Beat owned team Best EV Plan | 43.8 | 13.8 | 28.5 | +0.6 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP | Beat owned team | 42.0 | 12.0 | 27.5 | -0.4 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP | Beat ranked team | 42.0 | 12.0 | 27.5 | -0.4 | |
| Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP | Beat owned team Ceiling | 44.1 | 14.1 | 24.3 | -3.6 | |
| Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP | Beat ranked team | 44.1 | 14.1 | 24.3 | -3.6 | |
| Jacksonville St. H vs Sam Houston | Win by 20+ | 42.9 | 12.9 | 22.3 | -5.7 | |
| Baylor H vs Iowa St. | Win by 20+ | 43.5 | 13.5 | 20.6 | -7.3 | |
| Liberty A vs New Mexico St. | Win by 20+ | 43.5 | 13.5 | 20.6 | -7.4 | |
| Illinois H vs Nebraska Chris | Win by 20+ | 43.8 | 13.8 | 16.1 | -11.8 | |
| Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP | Win by 20+ | 44.1 | 14.1 | 15.1 | -12.8 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP | Win by 20+ | 42.0 | 12.0 | 14.6 | -13.3 | |
| No bonus all 6 games score normally | · | · | 27.9 | 27.9 | 27.9 | 0.0 |
| Matchup | Bonus option | Hit | If hit | If miss | Expected week | vs none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami H vs Duke Larry | Beat owned team Best EV Plan | 38.1 | 8.1 | 35.9 | +8.8 | |
| Ole Miss A vs Oklahoma Ed | Beat owned team | 42.9 | 12.9 | 27.7 | +0.6 | |
| Liberty H vs MTSU | Win by 20+ | 41.1 | 11.1 | 25.4 | -1.7 | |
| Miami H vs Duke Larry | Win by 20+ | 38.1 | 8.1 | 23.8 | -3.4 | |
| Illinois A vs UCLA Dudley AP | Beat owned team | 44.3 | 14.3 | 21.9 | -5.3 | |
| Illinois A vs UCLA Dudley AP | Beat ranked team | 44.3 | 14.3 | 21.9 | -5.3 | |
| Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP | Beat owned team | 44.4 | 14.4 | 21.7 | -5.4 | |
| Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP | Beat ranked team | 44.4 | 14.4 | 21.7 | -5.4 | |
| Jacksonville St. A vs WKU | Win by 20+ Ceiling | 44.7 | 14.7 | 16.6 | -10.5 | |
| Ole Miss A vs Oklahoma Ed | Win by 20+ | 42.9 | 12.9 | 15.3 | -11.8 | |
| Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP | Win by 20+ | 44.4 | 14.4 | 14.9 | -12.2 | |
| Illinois A vs UCLA Dudley AP | Win by 20+ | 44.3 | 14.3 | 14.9 | -12.2 | |
| No bonus all 6 games score normally | · | · | 27.1 | 27.1 | 27.1 | 0.0 |
| Matchup | Bonus option | Hit | If hit | If miss | Expected week | vs none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss H vs Wofford | Win by 20+ Best EV Plan Super, doubled | 68.5 | 8.5 | 67.4 | +31.0 | |
| Miami H vs VA Tech Larry | Beat owned team | 47.5 | 17.5 | 45.2 | +8.8 | |
| Illinois H vs Iowa Ed | Beat owned team Ceiling | 52.1 | 22.1 | 37.4 | +0.9 | |
| Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP | Beat owned team | 51.6 | 21.6 | 34.4 | -2.1 | |
| Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP | Beat ranked team | 51.6 | 21.6 | 34.4 | -2.1 | |
| Miami H vs VA Tech Larry | Win by 20+ | 47.5 | 17.5 | 32.9 | -3.5 | |
| Liberty H vs WKU | Win by 20+ | 51.0 | 21.0 | 32.5 | -3.9 | |
| Jacksonville St. H vs Missouri St. | Win by 20+ | 51.5 | 21.5 | 30.6 | -5.9 | |
| Illinois H vs Iowa Ed | Win by 20+ | 52.1 | 22.1 | 24.7 | -11.8 | |
| Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP | Win by 20+ | 51.6 | 21.6 | 23.3 | -13.1 | |
| No bonus all 6 games score normally | · | · | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0.0 |
| Matchup | Bonus option | Hit | If hit | If miss | Expected week | vs none |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss H vs Mississippi St. Mason | Beat owned team Best EV Plan | 41.0 | 11.0 | 35.4 | +7.0 | |
| Miami H vs BC | Win by 20+ | 41.5 | 11.5 | 32.1 | +3.6 | |
| Illinois A vs Northwestern Bill AP | Beat owned team | 44.8 | 14.8 | 24.4 | -4.1 | |
| Illinois A vs Northwestern Bill AP | Beat ranked team | 44.8 | 14.8 | 24.4 | -4.1 | |
| Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP | Beat owned team | 45.5 | 15.5 | 23.4 | -5.0 | |
| Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP | Beat ranked team | 45.5 | 15.5 | 23.4 | -5.0 | |
| Liberty A vs Missouri St. | Win by 20+ | 43.2 | 13.2 | 23.4 | -5.1 | |
| Ole Miss H vs Mississippi St. Mason | Win by 20+ | 41.0 | 11.0 | 20.3 | -8.2 | |
| Jacksonville St. A vs Delaware | Win by 20+ Ceiling | 46.1 | 16.1 | 17.9 | -10.6 | |
| Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP | Win by 20+ | 45.5 | 15.5 | 16.1 | -12.3 | |
| Illinois A vs Northwestern Bill AP | Win by 20+ | 44.8 | 14.8 | 15.8 | -12.7 | |
| No bonus all 6 games score normally | · | · | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 0.0 |
The schedule sheet spells Chris’s team Texas Tech while the draft sheet spells it
TX Tech, so the workbook flags those games as neither owned nor ranked. The board treats the two
spellings as the same team, so your Baylor home game in Week 12 is scored here as owned and ranked
(+3 and +3) and Beat Owned and Beat Ranked both show as legal picks for it. Only the workbook needs fixing.
Games are marked Owned = Y against Buffalo, which nobody drafted this year,
apparently left over from last season. (Mississippi St. carried the same stray flag until Mason picked
the Bulldogs up this week, so that one is now correct by accident.) The board treats Buffalo as unowned.
Hitting pays +20 and missing costs −10, but either way you give up what the game would have
scored normally. Week 1 was the textbook case: Illinois won and still posted −10. So the number that matters is
bonus EV − normal points, the “net gain” column throughout.
Break-even is a 1-in-3 hit rate.
The instinct is to bonus the marquee game, Ole Miss against Georgia in Week 10. The math says the opposite: a 52% shot there is worth -0.4, while Miami over BC by 20+ in Week 13 is worth +3.6. Big games already score well on their own, so the bonus adds little and risks a lot.
Week 1 was the lesson. Illinois was projected to win by about 15, which made “by 20+” a coin flip at best, and it missed by a single point. Every margin bonus in the plan sits on a projected spread of 35 or more, which puts the hit rate around 90% or better. Below that, an owned-opponent bonus is the safer way to collect 20.
The $35 weekly prize (weeks 3 through 12) goes to the single highest total, so on those weeks you are not maximizing your average, you are trying to beat eleven other owners. That is when the gold row matters: in Week 9 the best expected pick projects 36.0, but Jacksonville St. would post 47.2 if it lands. Worse on average, better if you need a number. Take the ceiling only when second place pays nothing.
You are never required to bonus. If a week has no option above break-even, take nothing rather than forcing a pick. Under the current ratings every remaining week has at least one option that clears the bar.