Blue Angels College Fantasy · 2026 Season

BowChamp Bonus Board

Six teams, thirteen bonus weeks, one Super Bonus. The draft is done — from here the only thing you control is the weekly bonus card. This is where it gets decided.

BaylorIllinoisJacksonville St.LibertyMiamiOle Miss

Picks due noon Thursday Email Daniel Frockt — danielfrockt@yahoo.com — reply-all so everyone can root against you. Earlier if a Tuesday or Wednesday game is involved.

The season card

Expected points added vs never bonusing: +90

Wk	Date	Team	Matchup	Bonus type	Hit	Net gain
1	Sep 4	Ole Miss	N vs UofL Mason	Beat owned team	69%	+4.7
2	Sep 10	Miami Super	H vs Florida A&M	Win by 20+	97%	+30.4
3	Sep 18	Illinois	H vs S. Illinois	Win by 20+	93%	+10.2
4	Sep 24	Miami	H vs C. Michigan	Win by 20+	73%	+4.8
5	Oct 2	Miami	A vs Clemson Larry AP	Beat owned team	69%	+2.6
6	Oct 7	Ole Miss	A vs Vandy Chris	Beat owned team	49%	+0.5
7	Oct 13	Miami	H vs FSU Larry	Beat owned team	78%	+6.4
8	Oct 21	Miami	H vs Pitt Drobby	Beat owned team	77%	+6.1
9	Oct 28	Miami	A vs UNC Tovah	Beat owned team	85%	+7.6
10	Nov 7	Illinois	H vs Nebraska Chris	Beat owned team	64%	+3.6
11	Nov 14	Illinois	A vs UCLA Dudley	Beat owned team	57%	+2.2
12	Nov 20	Ole Miss	H vs Wofford	Win by 20+	97%	+11.2
13	Nov 28	No bonus — nothing clears the break-even bar				0.0

Baylor0/6

Illinois3/6

Jacksonville St.0/6

Liberty0/6

Miami6/6

Ole Miss3/6

Each team may be bonused at most six times. Miami hits that ceiling under this plan — if you spend a Miami bonus early on something unplanned, a later week loses its best option.

Where the Super Bonus goes

Marginal value over a normal bonus = 30p − 10

Wk	Team	Opponent	Bonus type	Hit	Extra vs normal
2	Miami	vs Florida A&M	Win by 20+	97%	+19.2
12	Ole Miss	vs Wofford	Win by 20+	97%	+19.1
3	Illinois	vs S. Illinois	Win by 20+	93%	+18.0
12	Miami	vs VA Tech	Beat owned team	89%	+16.7
2	Baylor	vs Prairie View A&M	Win by 20+	87%	+16.2

Because the Super Bonus simply doubles both sides, it belongs on the single highest-probability bonus you were going to make anyway — not on a marquee game. Week 2 and Week 12 are effectively tied at 97%, so holding the Super Bonus until Week 12 costs about 0.1 points and keeps it in reserve in case injuries or a bad start change the picture.

Week by week

Every legal option, and what it does to your week total

Each week lists every bonus you could legally play. Expected week is your projected total for all six teams if you make that pick; week pts if hit and if miss are the two branches, holding your other games at their projections. The green row is the highest expected total; the gold row is the biggest number you could post if it lands.

▸Week 1 Sep 4Ole Miss — Beat owned team 31.8 pts

No bonus27.1

Best expected31.8Ole Miss · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits46.2Liberty · 11% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Ole Miss N vs UofL Mason	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	69%	41.0	11.0	31.8	+4.7
Jacksonville St. H vs E. Kentucky	Win by 20+	59%	40.6	10.6	28.3	+1.2
Baylor N vs Auburn Ed	Beat owned team	38%	43.9	13.9	25.3	-1.8
Illinois H vs UAB	Win by 20+	44%	41.3	11.3	24.6	-2.5
Miami A vs Stanford	Win by 20+	26%	42.5	12.5	20.2	-6.9
Liberty A vs JMU Mason	Beat owned team Ceiling	11%	46.2	16.2	19.5	-7.6
Ole Miss N vs UofL Mason	Win by 20+	19%	41.0	11.0	16.6	-10.5
Liberty A vs JMU Mason	Win by 20+	0%	46.2	16.2	16.3	-10.8
Baylor N vs Auburn Ed	Win by 20+	4%	43.9	13.9	15.3	-11.8
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	27.1	27.1	27.1	0.0

▸Week 2 Sep 10Miami — Win by 20+ Super 45.5 pts

No bonus34.2

Best expected45.5Miami · Win by 20+

Highest ceiling if it hits52.4Jacksonville St. · 4% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami H vs Florida A&M	Win by 20+ Best EV Plan	97%	46.3	16.3	45.5	+11.3
Baylor H vs Prairie View A&M	Win by 20+	87%	46.6	16.6	42.8	+8.6
Ole Miss H vs Charlotte	Win by 20+	60%	47.7	17.7	35.5	+1.3
Liberty H vs Gardner-Webb	Win by 20+	57%	47.8	17.8	34.8	+0.7
Illinois H vs Duke	Win by 20+	18%	50.3	20.3	25.6	-8.6
Jacksonville St. A vs Ohio	Win by 20+ Ceiling	4%	52.4	22.4	23.5	-10.7
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	34.2	34.2	34.2	0.0

▸Week 3 Sep 18Illinois — Win by 20+ 44.2 pts

No bonus34.0

Best expected44.2Illinois · Win by 20+

Highest ceiling if it hits51.0Jacksonville St. · 10% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Illinois H vs S. Illinois	Win by 20+ Best EV Plan	93%	46.2	16.2	44.2	+10.2
Miami A vs Wake Forest Sam	Beat owned team	72%	47.6	17.6	39.2	+5.2
Ole Miss H vs LSU Drobby AP	Beat owned team	70%	45.7	15.7	36.7	+2.8
Ole Miss H vs LSU Drobby AP	Beat ranked team	70%	45.7	15.7	36.7	+2.8
Baylor H vs LA Tech	Win by 20+	33%	48.8	18.8	28.8	-5.2
Liberty H vs Ball St.	Win by 20+	13%	50.6	20.6	24.4	-9.6
Jacksonville St. H vs Georgia Southern	Win by 20+ Ceiling	10%	51.0	21.0	23.9	-10.1
Miami A vs Wake Forest Sam	Win by 20+	21%	47.6	17.6	23.8	-10.1
Ole Miss H vs LSU Drobby AP	Win by 20+	19%	45.7	15.7	21.5	-12.5
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	34.0	34.0	34.0	0.0

▸Week 4 Sep 24Miami — Win by 20+ 29.0 pts

No bonus24.2

Best expected29.0Miami · Win by 20+

Highest ceiling if it hits42.8Illinois · 12% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami H vs C. Michigan	Win by 20+ Best EV Plan	73%	37.1	7.1	29.0	+4.8
Ole Miss A vs Florida Isaac	Beat owned team	61%	38.9	8.9	27.3	+3.1
Illinois A vs OSU Tovah AP	Beat owned team Ceiling	12%	42.8	12.8	16.5	-7.6
Illinois A vs OSU Tovah AP	Beat ranked team	12%	42.8	12.8	16.5	-7.6
Baylor H vs Colorado	Win by 20+	17%	40.3	10.3	15.4	-8.8
Jacksonville St. H vs MTSU	Win by 20+	16%	40.5	10.5	15.2	-9.0
Liberty A vs Coastal Carolina	Win by 20+	9%	41.4	11.4	13.9	-10.2
Illinois A vs OSU Tovah AP	Win by 20+	1%	42.8	12.8	13.0	-11.2
Ole Miss A vs Florida Isaac	Win by 20+	14%	38.9	8.9	12.9	-11.3
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	24.2	24.2	24.2	0.0

▸Week 5 Oct 2Miami — Beat owned team 20.7 pts

No bonus18.2

Best expected20.7Miami · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits35.4Liberty · 8% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami A vs Clemson Larry AP	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	69%	30.0	0.0	20.7	+2.6
Miami A vs Clemson Larry AP	Beat ranked team	69%	30.0	0.0	20.7	+2.6
Baylor A vs AZ St. Drobby	Beat owned team	38%	35.0	5.0	16.3	-1.8
Illinois H vs Purdue	Win by 20+	19%	34.1	4.1	9.9	-8.3
Liberty A vs Delaware	Win by 20+ Ceiling	8%	35.4	5.4	7.9	-10.3
Baylor A vs AZ St. Drobby	Win by 20+	4%	35.0	5.0	6.3	-11.8
Miami A vs Clemson Larry AP	Win by 20+	19%	30.0	0.0	5.6	-12.6
No bonus all 4 games score normally	—	—	18.2	18.2	18.2	0.0

▸Week 6 Oct 7Ole Miss — Beat owned team 14.0 pts

No bonus13.4

Best expected14.0Ole Miss · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits31.2Jacksonville St. · 5% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Ole Miss A vs Vandy Chris	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	49%	29.3	-0.7	14.0	+0.5
Liberty H vs Sam Houston	Win by 20+	23%	29.0	-1.0	6.0	-7.4
Illinois A vs Michigan St.	Win by 20+	8%	30.8	0.8	3.0	-10.4
Jacksonville St. A vs Kennesaw St.	Win by 20+ Ceiling	5%	31.2	1.2	2.8	-10.6
Ole Miss A vs Vandy Chris	Win by 20+	8%	29.3	-0.7	1.6	-11.8
No bonus all 4 games score normally	—	—	13.4	13.4	13.4	0.0

▸Week 7 Oct 13Miami — Beat owned team 30.1 pts

No bonus23.7

Best expected30.1Miami · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits39.5Baylor · 50% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami H vs FSU Larry	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	78%	36.7	6.7	30.1	+6.4
Ole Miss H vs Mizzu Bill AP	Beat owned team	70%	35.5	5.5	26.4	+2.7
Ole Miss H vs Mizzu Bill AP	Beat ranked team	70%	35.5	5.5	26.4	+2.7
Baylor H vs TCU Ed	Beat owned team Ceiling	50%	39.5	9.5	24.4	+0.7
Jacksonville St. H vs FIU	Win by 20+	20%	39.5	9.5	15.6	-8.1
Miami H vs FSU Larry	Win by 20+	27%	36.7	6.7	14.7	-9.0
Baylor H vs TCU Ed	Win by 20+	8%	39.5	9.5	11.9	-11.8
Ole Miss H vs Mizzu Bill AP	Win by 20+	19%	35.5	5.5	11.2	-12.5
No bonus all 4 games score normally	—	—	23.7	23.7	23.7	0.0

▸Week 8 Oct 21Miami — Beat owned team 24.6 pts

No bonus18.5

Best expected24.6Miami · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits36.6Liberty · 4% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami H vs Pitt Drobby	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	77%	31.6	1.6	24.6	+6.1
Ole Miss A vs Texas Ed AP	Beat owned team	41%	33.8	3.8	16.1	-2.4
Ole Miss A vs Texas Ed AP	Beat ranked team	41%	33.8	3.8	16.1	-2.4
Illinois H vs Oregon Isaac AP	Beat owned team	25%	35.7	5.7	13.2	-5.3
Illinois H vs Oregon Isaac AP	Beat ranked team	25%	35.7	5.7	13.2	-5.3
Miami H vs Pitt Drobby	Win by 20+	25%	31.6	1.6	9.2	-9.3
Baylor A vs Kansas	Win by 20+	5%	36.3	6.3	7.9	-10.6
Liberty A vs Kennesaw St.	Win by 20+ Ceiling	4%	36.6	6.6	7.8	-10.7
Illinois H vs Oregon Isaac AP	Win by 20+	2%	35.7	5.7	6.3	-12.2
Ole Miss A vs Texas Ed AP	Win by 20+	5%	33.8	3.8	5.4	-13.1
No bonus all 5 games score normally	—	—	18.5	18.5	18.5	0.0

▸Week 9 Oct 28Miami — Beat owned team 35.9 pts

No bonus28.3

Best expected35.9Miami · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits45.3Jacksonville St. · 10% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami A vs UNC Tovah	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	85%	40.5	10.5	35.9	+7.6
Ole Miss H vs Auburn Ed	Beat owned team	71%	42.1	12.1	33.4	+5.0
Baylor A vs UCF Mason	Beat owned team	49%	44.2	14.2	28.8	+0.5
Miami A vs UNC Tovah	Win by 20+	36%	40.5	10.5	21.2	-7.1
Liberty H vs FIU	Win by 20+	17%	44.5	14.5	19.6	-8.7
Illinois A vs Maryland	Win by 20+	11%	45.2	15.2	18.4	-9.9
Jacksonville St. A vs New Mexico St.	Win by 20+ Ceiling	10%	45.3	15.3	18.3	-10.0
Ole Miss H vs Auburn Ed	Win by 20+	20%	42.1	12.1	18.1	-10.3
Baylor A vs UCF Mason	Win by 20+	8%	44.2	14.2	16.5	-11.8
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	28.3	28.3	28.3	0.0

▸Week 10 Nov 7Illinois — Beat owned team 28.8 pts

No bonus25.1

Best expected28.8Illinois · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits42.4Liberty · 8% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Illinois H vs Nebraska Chris	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	64%	39.6	9.6	28.8	+3.6
Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP	Beat owned team	47%	39.8	9.8	23.9	-1.3
Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP	Beat ranked team	47%	39.8	9.8	23.9	-1.3
Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP	Beat owned team	35%	41.2	11.2	21.6	-3.5
Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP	Beat ranked team	35%	41.2	11.2	21.6	-3.5
Jacksonville St. H vs Sam Houston	Win by 20+	27%	40.4	10.4	18.5	-6.6
Liberty A vs New Mexico St.	Win by 20+ Ceiling	8%	42.4	12.4	14.9	-10.3
Baylor H vs Iowa St.	Win by 20+	8%	42.3	12.3	14.9	-10.2
Illinois H vs Nebraska Chris	Win by 20+	15%	39.6	9.6	14.1	-11.1
Miami A vs Notre Dame Larry AP	Win by 20+	4%	41.2	11.2	12.3	-12.8
Ole Miss H vs Georgia Mason AP	Win by 20+	7%	39.8	9.8	11.9	-13.3
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	25.1	25.1	25.1	0.0

▸Week 11 Nov 14Illinois — Beat owned team 26.7 pts

No bonus24.5

Best expected26.7Illinois · Beat owned team

Highest ceiling if it hits41.7Jacksonville St. · 8% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Illinois A vs UCLA Dudley	Beat owned team Best EV Plan	57%	39.6	9.6	26.7	+2.2
Ole Miss A vs Oklahoma Ed AP	Beat owned team	46%	39.2	9.2	23.0	-1.5
Ole Miss A vs Oklahoma Ed AP	Beat ranked team	46%	39.2	9.2	23.0	-1.5
Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP	Beat owned team	28%	41.3	11.3	19.8	-4.7
Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP	Beat ranked team	28%	41.3	11.3	19.8	-4.7
Miami H vs Duke	Win by 20+	30%	39.5	9.5	18.6	-5.8
Liberty H vs MTSU	Win by 20+	13%	41.0	11.0	15.0	-9.5
Jacksonville St. A vs WKU	Win by 20+ Ceiling	8%	41.7	11.7	14.2	-10.3
Illinois A vs UCLA Dudley	Win by 20+	11%	39.6	9.6	12.9	-11.5
Baylor A vs BYU Josh AP	Win by 20+	2%	41.3	11.3	12.0	-12.4
Ole Miss A vs Oklahoma Ed AP	Win by 20+	7%	39.2	9.2	11.2	-13.2
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	24.5	24.5	24.5	0.0

▸Week 12 Nov 20Ole Miss — Win by 20+ 43.6 pts

No bonus32.4

Best expected43.6Ole Miss · Win by 20+

Highest ceiling if it hits49.2Baylor · 29% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Ole Miss H vs Wofford	Win by 20+ Best EV Plan	97%	44.5	14.5	43.6	+11.2
Miami H vs VA Tech Larry	Beat owned team	89%	44.0	14.0	40.7	+8.3
Illinois H vs Iowa Ed AP	Beat owned team	48%	46.9	16.9	31.4	-1.0
Illinois H vs Iowa Ed AP	Beat ranked team	48%	46.9	16.9	31.4	-1.0
Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP	Beat owned team Ceiling	29%	49.2	19.2	27.8	-4.6
Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP	Beat ranked team	29%	49.2	19.2	27.8	-4.6
Miami H vs VA Tech Larry	Win by 20+	43%	44.0	14.0	27.0	-5.5
Jacksonville St. H vs Missouri St.	Win by 20+	18%	48.4	18.4	23.9	-8.5
Liberty H vs WKU	Win by 20+	12%	49.1	19.1	22.8	-9.6
Baylor H vs TX Tech Chris AP	Win by 20+	3%	49.2	19.2	20.0	-12.5
Illinois H vs Iowa Ed AP	Win by 20+	8%	46.9	16.9	19.1	-13.3
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	32.4	32.4	32.4	0.0

▸Week 13 Nov 28No bonus this week 23.9 pts

No bonus23.9

Best expected23.9Miami · Win by 20+

Highest ceiling if it hits41.2Illinois · 8% shot

Matchup	Bonus option	Hit	If hit	If miss	Expected week	vs none
Miami H vs BC	Win by 20+ Best EV	50%	37.8	7.8	22.7	-1.2
Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP	Beat owned team	41%	39.3	9.3	21.4	-2.5
Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP	Beat ranked team	41%	39.3	9.3	21.4	-2.5
Ole Miss H vs Mississippi St.	Win by 20+	26%	39.2	9.2	17.1	-6.8
Jacksonville St. A vs Delaware	Win by 20+	10%	40.8	10.8	13.9	-10.0
Liberty A vs Missouri St.	Win by 20+	8%	41.1	11.1	13.6	-10.3
Illinois A vs Northwestern	Win by 20+ Ceiling	8%	41.2	11.2	13.6	-10.3
Baylor A vs Houston Tovah AP	Win by 20+	5%	39.3	9.3	10.8	-13.1
No bonus all 6 games score normally	—	—	23.9	23.9	23.9	0.0

Two corrections to the league workbook

“Texas Tech” reads as unowned

The schedule sheet spells Chris’s team Texas Tech while the draft sheet spells it TX Tech, so five games are flagged as neither owned nor ranked — including your Baylor home game in Week 12. Those games are worth an extra +3 owned and +3 ranked, and they open bonus options the sheet currently hides.

Mississippi St. and Buffalo are flagged as owned

Fourteen games are marked Owned = Y against teams nobody drafted this year, apparently left over from last season. One is your Ole Miss game in Week 13, which the sheet credits with a +3 that will not actually score.

How the picks are made

A bonus replaces regular scoring

Hitting pays +20 and missing costs −10, but either way you give up what the game would have scored normally. So the number that matters is not the bonus EV — it is bonus EV − normal points. That is the “net gain” column throughout. Break-even is a 1-in-3 hit rate.

Bonus the blowouts, not the showcase games

The instinct is to bonus Ole Miss against Georgia. The math says the opposite: a 47% shot at beating Georgia is worth −1.4, while Miami over an FCS team by 20+ is worth +10. Big games already score well on their own, so the bonus adds little and risks a lot.

Cash weeks change the target

The $35 weekly prize goes to the single highest total, so on those weeks you are not maximizing your average — you are trying to beat eleven other owners. That is when the gold row matters: in Week 5 the best expected pick projects 20.7, but Liberty by 20+ would post 35.4 if it lands. Worse on average, better if you need a number. Take the ceiling only when second place pays nothing.

Skip the weeks that do not pay

You are never required to bonus. Week 13 has no option above break-even, so the plan takes nothing rather than forcing a pick.

The BowChamp bonus is not live this year

It needs four-plus games in a week where you expect every team to lose. Your best week for that is only 4.0% likely — Liberty and Jacksonville St. play too many winnable games. Do not plan on it.

What is behind the numbers

Ratings come from a strength-of-schedule rating built on every 2025 result stored in the league workbook, regressed for roster turnover and blended with the 2026 preseason AP poll. Full table in ratings_2026.csv — edit the override column and every number here follows.
Win and blowout probabilities assume a game margin scatters about 14 points around the projection. Back-tested against 2025, predicted and actual rates track closely (for projected margins of 21–28 points, 65% predicted vs 66% actual for a 20-point win).
The plan is not sensitive to that assumption. Re-running with the scatter anywhere from 11 to 17 points produces the identical twelve picks; only the size of the edge moves, from +80 to +103.
Ranked status changes weekly. These flags use the preseason poll. Paste each new AP Top 25 into the workbook and re-run before locking a pick.
Not modeled: injuries, weather, suspensions, and the 10-point undefeated-season bonus. Add/drop moves cost $10 and are not evaluated here.